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Press Releases for November 2009
November 26, 2009
New poll shows seven out of ten want immigration slashed
75% worried about impact immigration is having on Britain, 5% are pleased
Nearly 2/3rds of Labour voters want immigration sharply cut
November 24, 2009
Immigration Figures Due for Release on 26 November 2009
Background Briefing
November 10, 2009
Labour Concealed a shift in immigration policy
November 4, 2009
HUGE COST OF AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS QUANTIFIED
Full Text of Releases : November 2009
New poll shows seven out of ten want immigration slashed
75% worried about impact immigration is having on Britain, 5% are pleased
Nearly 2/3rds of Labour voters want immigration sharply cut
On the day that new Government statistics show that immigration in 2008 was 163,000, a new YouGov poll for Migrationwatch UK reveals the vast majority of the public are concerned about immigration and want it cut substantially so that the UK’s population does not hit 70 million in 2029, as official figures project.
To avoid the population hitting 70 million, net migration needs to be cut to 50,000 a year, a cut of 113,000 from the latest figure.
The YouGov poll found that 72% want it cut to 50,000 or less. Nearly two thirds of people (62%) who say they would vote Labour or Liberal Democrat want immigration cut to 50,000 or less.
The poll reveals the public’s lack of trust in the Government on an issue which most people find worrying. 77% of people disagree that the Government is open and honest about the scale of immigration into Britain: only a third (32%)of those who say they would vote Labour agree the Government is open and honest. 76% of people are worried about the impact that immigration is having on Britain. The region where concern is greatest is the North of England, where 80% are worried compared to just over two thirds in London. Just 5% of respondents said they were “pleased” about the impact immigration is having on Britain.
Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migrationwatch UK, said:
‘The government claim that their policies are contributing to a fall in immigration and that our population will not reach 70 million but very few believe them, and rightly so. We are firmly on track for three million immigrants under this government yet their much trumpeted Points Based System only applies to one in five of those permitted to enter Britain and has no limits whatever. Today’s immigration figures confirm that unless we change direction, immigration will add another seven million to our population in the next 25 years – that’s equivalent to seven cities the size of Birmingham. With the prime minister yet again ruling out any cap on numbers at the CBI conference, the Government has demonstrated just how out of touch it is with the views of the British people.
'Clearly, immigration is still out of control. The time has come for politicians of all parties to level with the public and make a clear commitment to hold immigration well below 50,000 a year.’
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Immigration Figures Due for Release on 26 November 2009
Background Briefing
Annual immigration figures for calendar 2008, the last before the election, will be published by the ONS on Thursday 26 November. The note (Briefing Paper 9.26) puts the figures, and Government claims about their immigration policy, into perspective.
- We expect the net immigration figure to be about 150,000 compared to 237,000 for 2007 – a drop of 37%.
- The reason has very little to do with government policy. 75% of the drop is due to more East Europeans going home.
- Contrary to government claims, the new immigration figures have already been largely factored into the latest ONS population projections which point to a UK population of 70 million in 2029.
- The projections show no sign of the population increase starting to slow down as the Immigration Minister has claimed. To the contrary, they show continued rapid growth.
- The figures will confirm that we are on track for over 3 million immigrants under Labour – even that is not counting illegal immigrants.
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Labour Concealed a shift in immigration policy
In Parliament today the Immigration Minister denied that there had been any change in immigration policy in 2001 nor, therefore, any political motive. However, there is clear evidence of a Labour shift in immigration policy in 2001-2 which was concealed from the public at the time, according to the attached Briefing Paper by think tank Migrationwatch.
Commenting, Sir Andrew Green, Chairman, MigrationwatchUK, said " The government went to great lengths to keep secret documents dealing with immigration policy. Now we know why. Looking back we can see clear evidence that recent revelations about a political motive in promoting mass immigration were indeed correct."
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HUGE COST OF AMNESTY FOR ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS QUANTIFIED
An amnesty for illegal immigrants would be bound to encourage further illegal immigration, their present number has been seriously underestimated and the lifetime cost would be in the order of £130 billion even on that low estimate of numbers, says a report out today from think-tank Migrationwatch.
The report is in reply to a paper published by the London School of Economics on 16 June in response to a request from London's Mayor. Introducing the document, Boris Johnson claimed it proved that immigrants were "far from a financial burden". He added:
"This new Report has introduced some long overdue facts, hard evidence and academic rigour into a debate which has far too often been dominated by myth, anecdote and hearsay".
Clearly the Mayor had not read the Report which makes it clear that "It has to be emphasised that these are ball park estimates at best" (page 110) and that "many of the numbers that had been generated for this Report have required heroic assumptions" (page 113).
The Mayor also claimed that:
"So far from a financial burden, as some suggest, this new research has found an amnesty could be worth up to £3 billion a year to the country's economy".
What the Report actually says is:
"Neither the literature nor currently available UK data provides a quantitative basis from which one could at all reliably start to estimate the scale of effects on UK output which would be likely to follow from regularisation"(page 73).
The Report is, in fact, astonishingly thin on its claim of economic benefit - just two paragraphs in 125 pages. It goes on to take what is described as "an example". This gives, on the basis of four hypotheses, an expected increase in GDP of some £3 billion (page 73).
Migrationwatch have now examined this Report in detail and have found that:
(a) The LSE report fails to deal with the central difficulty that an amnesty would be likely to encourage further illegal immigration. It omits any consideration of the key precedent of Spain where three amnesties since 2000 have led to a doubling of numbers on each occasion. The experience of Italy is similar.
(b) The central estimate of 618,000 illegal immigrants in the UK, adopted by the LSE, is very low since it assumes that, of the roughly 10 million people granted a visa between 2001 and 2007, only 1 in 200 overstayed - despite the absence of exit checks. Furthermore, their calculations take no account of additional dependants who will become entitled to join those who have been granted an amnesty. Despite this, we have calculated the lifetime cost on the basis of their estimate of the numbers.
(c) The "ball park estimates" in the GLA report put the annual cost of legalisation at about £2.4 billion a year (page 104), partly off-set by receipts of £0.8 billion, giving a net cost of £1.6 billion a year. Assuming an average working life of 33 years (from an average of 35 to 68), gives a working life cost of £52 billion. However, this assumes that those legalised will earn an average of twice the minimum wage and it includes only minimal costs for health and education on the grounds that illegals already have access to them. Correcting for these points brings that total to £77 billion, as explained in Annex C to the paper.
(d) Furthermore, the GLA made no allowance at all for post-retirement costs - apparently on the grounds that they are many years off. Assuming just seven years of retirement, from age 68 to 75, the total of these costs would be of the order of £57 billion, comprising Pension Credit (£21 billion), Housing Benefit (£21 billion), and health costs (£15 billion).
(e) Only ball park estimates are possible, as the GLA recognise, but our estimate for the whole life cost to the tax payer would be of the order of £134 billion, compared to the working-life GLA estimate of about £52 billion. Obviously, government revenues and expenditure over such a long period would also involve huge sums but these amnesty costs are both significant and largely avoidable.
Commenting, Sir Andrew Green, Chairman of Migrationwatch UK, said
"If this matter was not so serious, Boris's comments on the GLA report could be taken as one of his jokes. Unfortunately it is very serious. An amnesty would be bound to encourage still further illegal immigration as other countries have found and the life-time cost would be astronomical even on the low estimate of numbers in the GLA report. The way forward is to bear down on rogue employers and use the fines imposed on them to remove illegal immigrants as they are detected. This would deter rather than encourage the exploitation of illegal workers who are undercutting British workers and, indeed, taking jobs from them. Fortunately, the public has more common sense than London’s Mayor; our last opinion poll on the subject showed that 70% were opposed to an amnesty for illegal workers."
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